English Premier League predictions: two best bets for Matchday 16

 

Newcastle's Sean Longstaff, left, and Chelsea's Mason Mount vie for the ball during the English Premier League soccer match between Chelsea and Newcastle United at Stamford Bridge stadium in London, Sunday, March 13, 2022. The Associated Press

The final matchday before the World Cup is upon us, and we’re here to offer two English Premier League predictions across the weekend slate.

The marquee match of the weekend pits a surprise Newcastle United against Chelsea at St. James’ Park, while title hopefuls Manchester City and Arsenal face Brentford and Wolves, respectively.

But, which games offer bettors the best value? Below are my two best bets across the entire 10-game slate – odds come courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.

English Premier League Best Bet No. 1 Newcastle United Moneyline (+129) vs. Chelsea

Rarely do I get involved with the top match of the weekend, but this price on Newcastle is simply too good to pass up.

At home this season, the Magpies have proven an absolute juggernaut. Through their first seven fixtures at St. James’ Park, manager Eddie Howe’s side has a +6.27 expected goals on target (xGOT) differential along with a +11 big scoring chances differential.

Most of that success can be attributed to the Newcastle attack, which has amassed 1.98 xGOT per 90 minutes and 2.86 big scoring chances per 90 minutes at home. Plus, in four fixtures against Big Six clubs this season – three of which came at home – Newcastle only has a -0.38 xGOT differential per 90 minutes.

On the flip-side, Chelsea has struggled to establish much consistency away from home. Through seven road EPL fixtures, the Blues have a -1.66 xGOT differential and a -6 big scoring chances differential.

Even more worrisome is that Chelsea’s level of road competition hasn’t been that strong. Just in their last two road fixtures against Brentford and Brighton & Hove Albion – the closest comparisons to Newcastle – Chelsea has a -0.74 xGOT differential per 90 minutes and has conceded three big chances per match.

For those reasons, back the hosts up to +115 on the three-way moneyline.

English Premier League Best Bet No. 2 Bournemouth/Everton Total Under 2.5 Goals (-145)

A lot of juice to lay here, but there’s good reasoning for it.

This season, Bournemouth has quietly established itself as a strong home defensive unit. Through their first seven home fixtures, the Cherries have conceded only 1.27 xGOT per 90 minutes, down from a road average of 2.46 xGOT against per 90 minutes.

Additionally, if you just look at their five home fixtures against non-Big Six opponents, Bournemouth’s average drops further to only 1.03 xGOT against per 90 minutes.

At the same time, this Bournemouth offense has looked completely lifeless. In those same five home fixtures against non-Big Six clubs, manager Gary O’Neill’s side has produced only 0.54 xGOT per 90 minutes and has cleared more than one xGOT only once.

On the flip-side, Everton’s road offensive performances leave a lot to be desired. Through their first seven trips in the Premier League, the Toffees have generated only 5.24 xGOT, or 0.75 xGOT per 90 minutes.

Even in a road match against Fulham – one of the worst defenses in the Premier League – Everton managed only 0.36 xGOT.

For those reasons, I’ll back this total up to -150 or take under two goals at +135 or better.

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